Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 12.412069 13.957468 15.691419 17.795124 20.297335 23.202326 26.865429
2025-07-06 10.036684 11.909164 14.172794 17.155016 21.048741 26.059981 33.169468
2025-07-13 9.676519 11.980974 14.939694 19.116598 25.033555 33.404171 46.721961
2025-07-20 8.975440 11.460180 14.794487 19.754276 27.243672 38.689038 58.785317
2025-07-27 8.083024 10.548983 13.964887 19.245197 27.612555 41.193286 67.033237
2025-08-03 7.671343 10.240185 13.918280 19.840794 29.731122 46.904316 82.795307
2025-08-10 7.106916 9.647568 13.376854 19.572250 30.351286 50.111690 94.791591
2025-08-17 6.627585 9.131360 12.888622 19.308774 30.907612 53.285996 107.930846
2025-08-24 6.241758 8.719511 12.515596 19.178094 31.661402 56.997014 123.953078
2025-08-31 5.834107 8.240697 11.989761 18.714750 31.700567 59.208168 137.114024
2025-09-07 5.528757 7.897820 11.651944 18.539562 32.266575 62.707709 155.797762
2025-09-14 5.135782 7.389782 11.001166 17.724997 31.408060 62.700212 163.616214
2025-09-21 4.742307 6.870585 10.316446 16.822970 30.333357 62.176615 170.502991
2025-09-28 4.437697 6.478774 9.822524 16.237409 29.867524 63.135659 183.743237
2025-10-05 4.550537 6.776262 10.535525 18.055830 35.052991 80.753433 280.443883
2025-10-12 4.460509 6.725812 10.627087 18.646059 37.528785 91.799161 364.274131
2025-10-19 4.228650 6.418397 10.228616 18.174922 37.307749 94.374050 405.167180
2025-10-26 4.151618 6.373339 10.308622 18.726094 39.807255 107.053116 534.993690
2025-11-02 3.978281 6.148986 10.035431 18.477636 40.141884 112.255494 621.957819
2025-11-09 3.818241 5.939575 9.776342 18.233779 40.451274 117.561012 724.801271
2025-11-16 3.683839 5.768925 9.580359 18.112796 41.093505 124.557007 868.594259
2025-11-23 3.523573 5.543747 9.264055 17.683659 40.766544 127.404400 976.244159
2025-11-30 3.402948 5.385060 9.069181 17.521332 41.219095 134.007324 1167.029218